Which current F1 drivers should switch teams based on historical patterns?

So considering Mclaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes are supposed to stay where they are, I would consider that Norris will stay at Mclaren, Leclerc will stay at Ferrari for example. For the rest of not top teams, I would say Gasly will stay at Alpine for some years, and Ocon will stay at Haas too. The rest of drivers could be moving.

Aston Martin: Alonso-Stroll

Mclaren: Norris-Piastri

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Red Bull: Verstappen-Lawson

If Piastri leaves, Bortoleto would more than likely be brought to Mclaren. Then we have Ferrari. If Hamilton does not perform, he might be there till 2026, when Bearman could be ascended to Ferrari if he performs. Like I said, Leclerc will not be leaving Ferrari.

Ferrari: Leclerc-Hamilton

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For Audi, most likely they will look for experienced drivers that will help the team forward, but also mix it with youth, like they just did with Hulkenberg and Bortoleto. I think this duo will remain for some years. And same thing for Haas. Ocon is a quick driver, but looks like he is kind of buying his time in F1 for now. Might have something to do with his attitude in and off track, but top teams seem to have X’d him.

Mercedes: Russell-Antonelli

Kick Sauber: Hulkenberg-Bortoleto

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For example, we know that Lawson and Hadjar are under the microscope. They must perform, or they can be dropped quite quick. Specially Lawson. Tsunoda is known to have run down the Red Bull life, and he will be departing RB at the end of 2025. Antonelli will also be under the microscope, since he is really young and he did not really show the speed he was expected to have in F2. Having skipped F3 and Prema not being the team they used to be with the new regulations and cars could have played a big part in it, but…

Then we have Mercedes. There has been a lot of talks about Verstappen moving to Mercedes. But there is a big question mark there. Why? Because while Mercedes has shown they can do dominating cars, they have also shown lack of reaction capability since 2022. They have been unable to understand the rules and create a stable car. They are there some weekends, but in others they are far off the pace. And Max will not like that. He will want a team that can react quickly and give him what he needs to win. So most likely Russell will remain in the team, with Antonelli alongside him if he performs as he is expected to.

Alpine: Gasly-Doohan

Hi everybody! I have been looking at posts on narcs and narc abuse on here and if has really helped me out a lot. I am currently struggling with my situation and need some advice/support. I met a narc last year, everything seemed to good to be true. Love bombing, always texting calling and taking me on dates. Everything changed when someone warned me about him out in public in front of him and who he is. This caused a conflict with us and the love bombing seized. he would tell me that everything is okay and i can come and talk. He would set a time limit on me and kick me out after that. he would then text me like everything was fine and we hung out again and after that he completely ghosted me for one week. He came back and texted me a week later laughing about the ghosting and acting like nothing had happened. he continued to text me ( not like in the beginning) make plans with me, then on the day of the plans he would just ghost me. One day he would act interested the next silence. i contacted him a month later and he acted like nothing happened. He was on a vacation and sent me a picture of another woman ( someone he allegedly met on the trip) to strike a reaction but i never gave him one. After the trip he came to my place and was extremely rude, accusing me of going on dates with a bunch of men. The next day he accused me of being an alcoholic and that he wanted nothing to do with me but said well maybe we can be "friends" then ghosted me i assumed at this point it was over and i would never hear from him again. He contacted me on the holiday a month later acting like everything was great. We ended up hanging out a month or so later and when we hung out it went well, i thought things were going in the right direction. after we hung out.. silence. I would try to text him and if he replied it would be very short then he just stopped replying. He ghosted me for almost three months. I thought he was done this time and of course he popped up again like nothing happened. At this point i was getting sick of if so i questioned him as to why he dissapeared and always does this. Of course he had some sob story about a injury and family member dying of cancer. I felt pity for him and he gave me an apology.. so i took him back stupidly. things seemed to be going smooth for a couple months, of course until his family member died and his injury got better he never contacted me and was distant. Menawhile, i was there for him during the difficult time for him. He lied to me about the funeral and never wanted to chat. I was chasing him and he would always claim nothing was wrong but when i said i thought he used me when he was down he could not handle it and would always tell me he didnt care and to go away. I would get so upset i would try texting him to work it out he would barelt respond and if he did he would not be nice about it. we did hang out a couple times after that, he would ignore me after. One day i was like hey i think you are seeing someone else, and i was like well ixam seeing someone so no problem if you are he said " buy bye good luck with your new guy stop contacting me" i was devastated and tried to get into contact with him for weeks then i just gave up and accepted it was over. He ended up contacting me a month later acting like everything was fine. He wanted to go out and have drinks i told him i would. He and i both seemed to have a great time. He ends up ignoring me again. I kept texting him trying to figure out what was wrong. He kept saying everything was fine and i said ok can we hang out again? He said maybe i was like why? He just kept saying maybe … our last conversation we had… i said what is wrong ? He said nothing is wrong everything is fine. I asked him why he keeps saying maybe. He said " maybe but i dont want to see you right now" i said why? He saix " im just not feeling it, if i wanted to date i would" i said why did you contact me less then a week ago wanting to go out? He said i didnt.. even though he did. So i said should i just move on or what? He said whatever you want to do. So i said that he was really confusing me and asked him if he had anything more to say before i move on? My messages were turning green so i panicked he blocked me and reacted irrationally. I said " omg did you block me? My messages are not going through. Even texted him on my work phone asking what was up. And called him twice ( please dont judge me i know it is pathetic i never was this type of girl before him) so he replied and said " Ok I'll block you now" then immedietly blocked me. He has never blocked me before since I have met him he will just ghost. Is this ths final discard aka " grand finale? Did i just push him too far? this has upset me so much its hard to even function.

RB: Tsunoda-Hadjar

For Alpine, as Briatore said, first they need to fix the car and then focus on drivers. If what he forecasted becomes reality and they become podium and victory contenders, then most likely they will for a strong driver. In that case, I believe Sainz jr could be a driver to go there from Williams. We all know Williams is a transition team for Sainz jr, not secrets there. The reasonn why Sainz jr did not join Alpine for 2025 is because at the times of the negotiations the car was not there. But as we have seen at the end of the season with Gasly, the car can be quick. So perhaps in 2026 or 2027 Sainz jr could be the “top” driver Alpine would be looking for. I believe Doohan will not last long in Alpine, and Colapinto might not be the driver either.

Haas: Ocon-Bearman

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That could unlock a chain of moves, as did Hamilton’s move to Ferrari this year. If Max goes to AM, Red Bull will be looking for a new star driver. They have shown interest in Norris before, but I doubt Norris would be joining Red Bull. What I do think is that perhaps Red Bull could target Piastri. Mclaren has 2 top drivers, and both will want to be champions. That could create friction, making one of them eager to listen to offers. Norris is the wonderkid of Mclaren, so Piastri could be the one leaving to another team, such as Red Bull.

Considering that the line ups are as below, let’s see what would historical patterns say:

Historically speaking, top drivers usually end up in top teams. And once they are comfortable and with a fast car, it is unlikely for a move to happen. And for that move to happen, there has to be a project with proper funding and attractive enough for the driver to consider a change.

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For Aston Martin, I already mentioned the Verstappen situation. Alonso could retire in 2026, and have Verstappen join. Stroll is not going anywhere as long as his father is there or he gets bored. Honda might push to change things though and try to bring Tsunoda to the team, but I highly doubt it. With Newey in the team, many drivers could be looking to join the team for 2027.

Williams could keep Albon, as it does not look like top teams are interested in him. The only thing that could see that change would be him beating Sainz jr consistently. That could change Albon’s career again and bring him back to a top team. But I believe everyone will predict Sainz jr clearly coming on top, and perhaps hope to have another chance in a top team. So if Sainz jr leaves, most likely Williams will take Colapinto back.

So, who could change teams? Verstappen could be one of them. Red Bull are changing to Ford power units from 2026 on. Ford is not really known in modern F1 to have any race wins or titles, and American engine suppliers are not really into F1 kind of motorsports, so the uncertainty is there. We have the fact that Lawrence Stroll is looking for his star driver to close his Aston Martin project. He got Honda, he got Newey, he got new top notch installations at the factory, and now he needs a star driver. Alonso is out of F1 life due to age, and Lance is there just because he is the son. Drugovich deserves that seat way too much… But we know Lance won’t be seated out unless he wants to. So what is likely to happen is that Verstappen could be lured to join in 2027. Either that, or he could retire and enjoy the millions he earned during these years and his new born baby.

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Williams: Albon-Sainz jr